Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja, dan Pembangunan TIK terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka Antarprovinsi di Indonesia Tahun 2021

Abstract

This study examines the effects of economic growth, the labor force participation rate (LFPR), and the Information and Communication Technology Development Index (IP-TIK) on the open unemployment rate (TPT) across Indonesian provinces in 2021. Unemployment varied markedly among provinces during the post-pandemic recovery, while digital transformation reshaped labor demand, yet provincial evidence that integrates output growth, labor force participation, and digital development within a single Okun’s law framework remains limited. Using secondary cross-sectional data from 34 provinces published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study estimates a multiple linear regression model with the Ordinary Least Squares method in EViews. Classical assumption tests indicate that the residuals are normally distributed and that the model is free from multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity. The results show that gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth has a negative but statistically insignificant coefficient (−0.003; p = 0.9712). The labor force participation rate has a negative and statistically significant coefficient (−0.197; p = 0.0275), which is contrary to the expected positive sign, whereas the IP-TIK coefficient is positive and not significant at the 5 percent level (0.899; p = 0.0847). The three variables are jointly significant (F = 5.437; p = 0.004), and the model explains 35.2 percent of the variation in open unemployment. These findings suggest that output growth does not necessarily reduce unemployment, that higher labor force participation is associated with lower unemployment, and that digital development has not yet been associated with lower unemployment. Employment policy should therefore prioritize the labor absorption capacity of economic growth and link digital programs with skills training.