Determinasi Emisi Karbon di Indonesia: Peran Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Konsumsi Energi, dan Urbanisasi Periode 1990-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v4i11.13258Keywords:
ARDL; carbon emissions; energy consumption; gross domestic product; urbanizationAbstract
Peningkatan emisi karbon dioksida (CO₂) di Indonesia berkaitan erat dengan perluasan aktivitas ekonomi, kenaikan penggunaan energi, dan pesatnya pertumbuhan wilayah perkotaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), konsumsi energi, dan urbanisasi terhadap emisi karbon di Indonesia pada tahun 1990-2024. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder tahunan dari World Development Indicators, yang dianalisis dengan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil uji batas (bounds test) membuktikan adanya kointegrasi antar variabel. Dalam jangka panjang, konsumsi energi dan urbanisasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi karbon, sedangkan PDB tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek, PDB dan urbanisasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, dan koefisien koreksi kesalahan bernilai negatif dan signifikan sehingga terjadi penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Uji diagnostik menunjukkan model terbebas dari masalah normalitas, autokorelasi, dan heteroskedastisitas, serta stabil secara struktural. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan bahwa pengendalian emisi di Indonesia memerlukan peningkatan efisiensi energi, percepatan transisi ke energi terbarukan, dan perencanaan kota yang berkelanjutan guna mendukung target aksi iklim.
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