ANALISIS SITUASI KASUS TUBERKULOSIS DI PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major infectious disease burden in Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological situation of TB disease across 17 districts/cities of Southeast Sulawesi in 2024 using descriptive statistical analysis and distribution testing approaches. Secondary data on TB case counts for 2024 were obtained from the Southeast Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. Analyses included descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk normality test, overdispersion identification through the variance-to-mean ratio and the Cameron-Trivedi test, and Negative Binomial distribution parameter estimation via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Results showed a total of 1,116 TB cases with a mean of 65.65 (standard deviation 42.85) and a coefficient of variation of 65.27%, indicating significant inter-regional inequality (Gini coefficient = 0.2515). Data were non-normally distributed (Shapiro-Wilk: W = 0.5881; p = 7.996 × 10⁻⁶). The variance-to-mean ratio of 26.32 indicated descriptive overdispersion, although the Cameron-Trivedi test did not yield statistically significant evidence (z = 1.176; p = 0.120), likely due to the limited sample size (n = 17). MLE of the Negative Binomial dispersion parameter yielded θ̂ = 4.652 (Std. Err. = 1.64). Kendari City recorded the highest burden (222 cases; 19.89%), while Wakatobi Regency had the lowest (30 cases; 2.69%). These findings underscore the need for Negative Binomial-based modeling and health interventions prioritized in high-burden areas