Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Suku Bunga terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply and interest rates on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Indonesia during the period 2005–2025. The capital market plays a strategic role in the economy as a means of investment and capital accumulation, making the IHSG a key indicator of a country’s economic condition. The variables in this study consist of money supply (M2) and interest rates as independent variables, and the IHSG as the dependent variable. This study employs a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis with EViews 12 software.The partial results indicate that money supply has a positive and significant effect on the IHSG, with a t-statistic value of 8.7332 and a probability value of 0.0000 < 0.05. Meanwhile, interest rates have a negative but not significant effect on the IHSG, with a t-statistic value of 1.156 and a probability value of 0.2628 > 0.05. Simultaneously, money supply and interest rates have a significant effect on the IHSG, as indicated by an F-statistic value of 120.1064 > F-table 3.55 and a probability value of 0.0000 < 0.05. The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.9302, indicating that 93.02% of the variation in the IHSG can be explained by these two variables, while the remaining is influenced by other factors outside the model.These findings indicate that money supply has a more dominant influence than interest rates in affecting the movement of the IHSG in Indonesia. Therefore, monetary policy that maintains liquidity stability is crucial in supporting investment growth in the capital market.