TEKANAN INFLASI DAN DAYA BELI MASYARAKAT INDONESIA: Dampak Kenaikan Harga Komoditas Global Tahun 2026
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61722/jaem.v3i3.11356Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Global Commodity Prices; Indonesia 2026; Inflation; Purchasing PowerAbstract
This study examines the impact of rising global commodity prices in 2026 on inflationary pressures and the purchasing power of Indonesian households. Employing a quantitative approach based on secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the research analyses the transmission of international commodity prices—encompassing energy, food, and metals—into the domestic inflation structure through import channels, production cost pass-through, and consumer price expectations. Findings indicate that a 10% average increase in global commodity prices contributes to a 1.8–2.4 percentage point rise in domestic inflation within a three-to-six-month lag, with low-income households bearing a disproportionately higher burden. The Consumer Purchasing Power Index (CPPI) recorded a 7.3% decline in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in the previous year. These findings underscore the need for better-targeted social assistance programmes, strengthened national food reserves, and energy source diversification to protect vulnerable groups from global price volatility.
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